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Post TI12 Group Stage Recap and Prediction Updates

Taken from the Dota 2 website. Property of Valve

The International 2023 or TI12 group stage has ended and boy it has been a wild ride! The group stage has been a mix of stomps and upsets. Teams playing their hearts out, and some letting their nerves get the better of them. TI12 is rollercoaster of emotions with a side of great action.

If you haven't already known, the group stage format for this year's The International is a bit different. It comes in 2 phases. 1st phase, there are 4 group of 5 teams who play a round robin series of Bo2 (Best of 2) matches and the bottom team gets eliminated. Then, the 16 remaining teams will move on to Phase 2 of the group stage. The 2nd phase decides which teams will be starting in the upper or lower bracket during playoffs, and this will be done through a series of Bo3 (Best of 3) matches.

With everything that happened in the Group Stage, I was and am prepared to eat my own words. I have a few prediction updates and of course, I have to give credit where credit is due. So, let's get into it!

Group Stage Phase 1
Post Phase 1 Standings:


The Wild TI12 show began during the 1st phase of the group stage. 

Opening match day, 1st match of day for group C, LGD, top CN team, vs GG, multi major winner and favored to win TI, LGD comes out with a win for 2-0. After this, LGD went on to secure top seed in the group, only drop 1 map against VP. While GG, after experiencing defeat, bounced back and secured 2nd seed.

On to our Multi TI hopefuls, Team Spirit and Tundra who showcased dominance in their respective groups, despite having changes from their previous TI lineups. Team Spirit dominated the group stage, securing top seed in their group with an 8-0 record. While Tundra did the same in their group, only dropping a map against KStar. These team showed great understanding of the current meta and their team play was on point, despite having changes prior to this year's TI.

Though the team standings are somewhat expected, such as the European teams dominating and Americas/SEA were caught lacking. There were are few notable team performances, both good and bad. Entity showed they can keep up with the big boys of Europe, securing 2nd seed in their group. Azure Ray, a Chinese team composed of a veterans, showed they still got it and survived the group stage. On the opposite side of things, Team SMG despite having a great stand-in, couldn't perform at a hundred percent, thus their early exit. Another team with so much potential was PSG Quest, a team who powered through the regional qualifiers, yet they bombed out of the group stage. The eliminated teams were not bad, it just so happened they couldn't keep up with the momentum the other teams had. GGs to Team SMG, Thunder Awaken, Beastcoat, and PSG Quest. 

Group Stage Phase 2
Post Phase 2 Standings:


Group Stage Phase 2 went by so quickly. Happening in only 2 days, it rained a series of 2-0 victories. It is worth nothing that, a series win in the phase will dictate whether you end up in the upper or lower bracket of playoffs.

Opening up phase 2, we saw Team Spirit maintain their 100% winrate with a great showing against Shopify Rebelion, placing them in the upper bracket. Following this match, European Dota continued to dominate the Americas, with Virtus.pro beating TSM and Team Liquid beating Evil Genuises, both 2-0! The last series of the day was a heart stopper between the favored team, Gaimin Gladiators, versus the lone SEA representative, Talon eSports. Game 1 was a dominant showcase of why GG is favored to win it all. But in game 2, Talon's never say die attitude carried them and they grinded out the series securing 1 map against Gaimin Gladiators. Game 3, the map that decides who will go on to the upper bracket, was an early back and forth, but mistakes and great plays helped Talon secured the series win, sending the GG to the lower bracket.

Day 2 was quite similar to the first day with it having been a bunch of 2-0, but this time China took the stage. The opening series of the day was between LGD and Keyd Stars, with LGD sending Keyd Stars to the lower bracket via means of a 2-0 sweep. Fellow CN team, Azure Ray, showed they still have it in them to compete with the newer generation, sweeping Entity in a great 2 map set. Aside from the CN gaming, we saw a classic EEU match up between 9Pandas and Betboom, with 9Pandas securing the win in the 3 map series. Now for the biggest upset of the day, the NA team, Nouns, sending TI Champs, Tundra, down to the lower bracket. With a 2-0 showing, Nouns dismantled Tundra, who was caught lacking that day. This just goes to show, anything can happen in The International.

Meta

With a patch dropping before TI12 to rebalance certain aspects of the game, the meta of the tournament shifted. With 100 games already played in the tournament, we more or less have an idea of what the meta looks like.

Coming from the Dream League meta, the new patch addressed the PA spam. So far, Phantom Assassin has not been a contested pick and is not as oppressive as it used to be, having 45% winrate. Aside from PA, Earth Spirit was a notable pick last tournament and is still highly contested now. Though as the tournament goes on, Earth Spirit may fade out due to teams finding ways to deal with his kit. Aside from heroes, there are still items that stayed in meta for builds. Such examples are Blademail and Heart, because they synergize well with each other. Though not as effective as they were previously, they are still hard items to deal with.

Now on to the new meta formed in this year's TI...

4 notable picks come to mind when we speak of group stage meta: Bristleback, Chaos Knight, Muerta and Spiritbreaker. These 4 pub stompy picks made their way in the TI12 meta! We've seen Bristleback and Chaos Knight flex picked as either 1 or 3. These mid game heroes reach their power spikes early on and can dominate lane easily. With majority of the group stage matches ending before the 40 minute mark, heroes that can activate early are key to snowballing. Muerta is played often during the latter phase of the group stage as a position 4 support. Her early game lane harassment is pretty hard to deal with if you are a farm extensive position 1 carry. Last but certainly not the least, Spiritbreaker is back and as annoying as ever! Known for his map presence, Spiritbreaker can manipulate the game's pace. With his ability to quickly clear waves and join or set up team fights, it is no surprise he is picked in a meta where map mobility is essential.


Prediction Updates

Now for the moment you have all been waiting for... the predictions!

I know when I am wrong, and I can admit that my early predictions were not on point. So hopefully, caster's curse won't affect this round of predictions.

Meta wise, we've seen the shift from farm heavy team compositions to now more of an early game rush. I feel that the meta still has room to evolve, because the gameplay between Bo2s and Bo3s are different. Spiritbreaker will still be a nuisance, but it will be dealt with during drafts. Though I still expect games to end before the 40 minute mark.

Competition prediction is another story. Gaimin Gladiators with the lower bracket start, because of an NA team was such a wild card. I missed the mark saying that the CN teams will have a hard time keeping up with the international scene, but LGD and Azure Ray both made it to the upper bracket. The Americas had a lackluster showing, seen with majority being eliminated or in the lower bracket. With how the lower brackets is set up, we can see, at most, 2 American teams eliminated. On a positive note, EU, taking up majority of the playoff spots, is favored to take over The International. Though our potential WEU powerhouses GG and Tundra may square off during the lower bracket quarterfinals. Speaking of Tundra in the lower bracket, Entity, one of my underdog picks, will be their first opponent, and things aren't looking too good for them. But you know TI, anything can happen! Meanwhile, Talon will be going against Team Liquid, and let's hope 23Savage can bounce back from the past.

Now that group stage is over, let's revisit the previous Top 4 predictions!
  1. Team Spirit
  2. LGD
  3. Team Liquid
  4. Team Talon
I believe the champion will be coming the upper bracket. I see Team Spirit going against LGD in the upper bracket finals. Team Liquid has the potential to grind out the lower bracket, like they've done in the past. Talon is there for the underdog story every TI needs.

I will probably making update with these predictions as the tournament happens, so be sure to stay posted over at my Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/mogmogi.gg
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